Developed over twenty years, this natural climate model is the only model that correctly explains the climatic trends since 1850 and also predicts further climate changes. The first version was published in 2001 and forecasted a 30-year period of temperature decline/plateau, which will last until 2030. Successive versions developed over time provided more details to this model — such as the 2013 predictions that 2017 will be the warmest year of the period and 2020 will be the beginning of a decade of cooling.
Climate Change: the Big Picture
We are in 2020 and climatologists want us to believe that we are on the brink of a global warming disaster and, if we do not take action to reduce the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, sooner or later we are going to end up fried.
Yet, this prediction has a problem: Climate scientists focused just on the last 40 years of the story, ignoring the big picture of the last 125 years of climate change history.
The following synopsis demonstrates that scientists and journalists have warned us four times until now of alternating climate trends. Each new trend had its own dose of climate scare: two trends predicted that we are going to be frozen and two others that we are going to be fried. Now, we are in the fourth trend.
This story begins in 1895 when Page Six of The New York Times was warning readers about the looming dangers of a new ice age: “Geologists Think the World May Be Frozen Up Again.”
Climatologists treat now global warming like it is a new idea, but by the 1920s, scientists announced a climate trend toward global warming and started to search for its source.
In 1938, Guy Callendar, a steam engineer and amateur meteorologist in his spare time, developed a theory that linked rising carbon dioxide concentration, generated by the burning of fossil fuels, to the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.
His paper, “The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature,” was published in the prestigious Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society in April 1938.
See the pdf here.
In 1940, climate changed its trend for the third time since 1895 and, after that, the temperatures continued to decline for several decades. This was contrary to Callendar’s theory, because the carbon dioxide concentration generated by humans was rising, while the Earth’s atmosphere was cooling. This fact invalidated his hypothesis and soon it was forgotten.
During the following decades of cooling temperatures, scientists published at least 285 papers that confirmed their scientific consensus on global cooling and on the weak influence the CO2 has on it.
In 1975, Newsweek published the article “The Cooling World” that explains in detail the global trend of cooling towards an ice age:
In the thirty years leading up to the 1970s, available temperature recordings suggested that there was a cooling trend. As a result, scientists assumed that “the current inter-glacial period could rapidly draw to a close, which might result in the Earth plunging into a new ice age over the next few centuries.”
The global temperatures continued to decline and, in 1979, scientists from 50 nations met at the First World Climate Conference (WCC).
According to Wikipedia :
The First World Climate Conference was held on 12–23 February 1979 in Geneva and sponsored by the WMO. It was one of the first major international meetings on climate change. Essentially a scientific conference, it was attended by scientists from a wide range of disciplines… The Conference led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme and the World Climate Research Programme. It also led to the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by WMO and UNEP in 1988.
The declaration issued at the end of the Climate Conference found urgently necessary… to foresee and to prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity. However, climatologists did not talk about global warming, as some might believe. They were referring to “the slow cooling trend … over the last few decades,” produced by CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and wondered “whether this [cooling trend] will continue or not.”
Let us be clear: At the time of the First World Climate Conference in 1979, climatologists considered that “the slow cooling trend… over the last few decades,” was produced by CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Since the cooling trend started in 1940, climate scientists had four decades to validate this hypothesis.
In the beginning of the 1980s, climatologists realized that climate reversed its trend for the fourth time. What did they do with that? Instead of concluding that CO2 and other gases are not the source of climate change, they started to blame again these gases, but this time for warming the atmosphere, totally ignoring the facts accumulated over the previous 40 years of cooling.
So, in 2020, we see that something is definitely wrong. Clearly, scientists cannot blame CO2 and other greenhouse gases for 40 years that they produce cooling and for the next 40 years that they produce warming. It is not a day or two. It is 40 years every time. This is a compelling evidence that these gases are not doing anything at all.
With this obvious lack of correlation between the two facts, this also means that anthropogenic global warming is totally wrong and humans cannot be blamed for climate change.
Then, who — or rather, what — is to be blamed for the ongoing yo-yo of climate change?
20 Years of Correct Climate Forecasts: Dual-Forcing Natural Climate Model
Do not stare up at the sky searching for answers on global warming; look down at Earth instead.
The Earth – this complex and active geosystem – is warming, shaking, leaking, swirling, flooding, and sliding, all at the same time. All of these activities have something in common: Researchers in each of these scientific fields are not yet able to predict their behavor by other means than observational statistics. Climatology is the best example that its scientific researchers failed lamentably when they tried to understand how climate changes while using models based on the AGW theory.
There is a reason for that. All of these earthly activities are just different manifestations of geosystem’s inner activity, this unique and unexplained yet cause. These natural phenomena are interrelated, but they do not directly influence each other. Except for climate — which ultimately is average weather over a longer period of time.
Simply put, trying to understand climate change disconnected from its cause, geosystem’s inner activity, is doomed to failure.
Therefore, let us get a glimpse from a different perspective into how climate change actually takes place.
In July 2001, the Hypothesis of a 60-Year Dual-Pattern Climate Model Predicted Temperature Decline/Plateau Until 2030
On July 23, 2001, Gene Alexandrescu, Convergetics’ founder and president, launched Warmingearth.com to present evidence that climate change is natural and has a 60-year cycle. He also predicted that, in 2000, the Earth has entered a 30-year period of temperature decline/plateau, which will last until 2030. Read here for more details.
Analyzing global temperature statistics between 1856 and 2000, Alexandrescu discovered a pattern in temperature variation highlighted by a 60-year cycle of warming and cooling. He formulated this hypothesis based on global temperature data available in 2001 at the U.S. National Climatic Data Center. Note that after this model was published, the temperature statistics between 1856 and 1880 were deleted because they were considered not reliable enough. However, this climate model proves that they are consistent with the temperature variation during the following 120 years. Was this a tentative to thwart the climate model by removing its first warming period?
The blue graph represents the yearly global temperature changes between 1856 and 2000, while the red graph is the average global temperature for the same period. The brown dotted graph is the main 60-year cycle of Earth’s natural activity.
Examining the graph, Alexandrescu noticed five alternating climate trends and estimated that the first warming trend with statistics from 1856 actually started in 1850. In this way, he hypothesized that the first two trends — one of warming (1850–1880) and the other of cooling (1880–1910) — are one 60–year cycle, such as the cycles of the thermostats that keep various temperatures steady in your home.
However, different from the thermostats, which have opposite but equal variations at the end of the cooling phase, the temperature was higher than at the beginning of the warming period. Simply put, the Earth did not cool enough to compensate the warming.
The same lack of cooling is present in the second 60-year cycle (1910–1970), when the 1940–1970 temperature decline of the cooling period was even smaller than the 1910–1940 temperature rise in its warming period.
In this way, Alexandrescu concluded that the temperature variation over 1850–1970 is the result of two superposed natural driving forces.
1. The main pattern is a 60-year cycle with equal warming and cooling phases.
2. The secondary pattern is a temperature burst that occurs between the half and the third quarter of each of the two cooling phases. These secondary warming bursts are highlighted with the green triangles “A” and “B”.
Simply put, the culprit for global warming IS NOT an excess of warming — for any reason, including AGW — but IS A LACK OF COOLING during the two cooling periods 1880–1910 and 1940–1970.
In each of the two cycles, the transition from the warming period to the cooling period is marked by a sudden temperature drop of about 0.2–0.3°F (0.10–0.15°C), highlighted in our graph by the yellow ovals “1″ and “2″.
Since the same temperature drop is also present at the end of the third warming period (1970–2000), this implies that this period is just the warming phase of the third cycle 1970–2030.
As a result, Alexandrescu also inferred that 2000–2030 should be the third cooling period.
In a press release published on July 23, 2001 Alexandrescu explained:
“The 60-year cycle of Earth warming cannot be explained through the greenhouse effect. Its length indicates a natural cause. Now is the best time to see if this warming pattern is correct. If it is, we will be entering a cooling phase. However, if the greenhouse effect holds true, then Earth’s temperature will continue to rise,” Alexandrescu said.
In the press release, Alexandrescu also urged that the Kyoto Protocol be put on a five– to ten–year “hold” while the Earth’s temperature is monitored. [Emphasis added] He estimated that after five years, the temperature decline will be significant enough to be noted by climatologists, and after ten years will be important enough to be accepted by everyone. However, Alexandrescu did not take into account that climatologists would hide this cooling from the public.
“If we do nothing and the greenhouse effect is true,” he said, “then it may produce in the next ten years a global average temperature rise of only 0.2–0.3°F (0.10-0.15°C) which is not really significant. But, if it is not true, we will save needless expense.” [Emphasis added]
Proof of the 2001 Predictions
The suggestion to put the Kyoto Protocol on hold proved to be correct, because both five-year and ten-year predictions were validated by Phil Jones, the CRU director until 2016:
1. By 2005, climatologists will notice that the Earth stopped warming.
One of the documents published by the first Climategate was the private email Phil Jones sent on July 5, 2005:
“The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.”
So in 2005, the top CRU climatologist did notice that “the world had cooled,” as Alexandrescu predicted, but decided to hide this information from the public.
2. By 2010, climatologists will reconfirm the warming hiatus.
During a BBC News interview in February 2010, Jones also declared:
“I’m a scientist trying to measure temperature. If I registered that the climate has been cooling, I’d say so. But it hasn’t until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend.”
However, when we corroborate these two declarations, the conclusion is that Jones knew all the time that the temperature was declining since 1998, but in the 2010 interview, he just tried to mitigate the length and importance of this decline by hiding the 1998–2005 decline. Perhaps he thought that nobody would find out about the 2005 private email when he said: “But it hasn’t until recently…”
In 2013, a New Version of the Climate Model Predicted the 2020 Cold Weather and Forecasted 2030 0.26°C (0.47°F) Below 2000
In 2013, Convergetics Research Center published an updated version of the 2001 Sexagesimal Hypothesis. This new model uses the Climatic Research Unit graph, prominently displayed on its homepage since September 25, 2006 and is intended to demonstrate man-made global warming.
However, opposite to the CRU’s intent, this hypothesis uses the CRU graph to explain that climate change is proof of lack of global cooling, not global warming. Read it for more details.
The 2013 Sexagesimal Hypothesis — a 60-Year Dual-Pattern Climate Model — confirms the 2001 model and shows that climate change is the summation of two distinct forcings:
1. A Main Forcing, which is a 60-year cycle with equal warming and cooling phases of 0.47°C (0.85°F) that acts like a thermostat to keep steady Earth’s long-term temperature.
2. A Secondary Forcing, which is a temperature burst that occurred in each of the two cooling phases and prevented the Earth to cool enough to return to its temperature at the beginning of the warming period. The cooling period 1880-1910 had a temperature decline of just 0.27°C (0.48°F) instead of 0.47°C (0.85°F), because the warming burst made it lose 0.20°C (0.36°F).
The second cooling period 1940-1970 was only 0.09°C (0.16°F). However, in 2020, Alexandrescu discovered that the temperature statistics were “doctored” by dishonest climatologists to show less cooling during this period. This change was perceived to be equivalent to a bigger warming burst. Yet, Alexandrescu estimates that the real temperature decline repeated the previous cycle with 0.27°C (0.48°F) drop, as does the present cooling period which had the warming burst in 2017. As we know, the present temperature exhibits a clear decline.
It is important to highlight that the warming periods 1910-1940 and 1970-2000 have exactly the same temperature rise of 0.47°C (0.85°F), which proves that the main forcing is indeed real.
However, in 1970, the combined cooling of the two periods was just 0.36°C (0.65°F) instead of 0.94°C (1.69°F), for a combined lack of cooling of of 0.58°C (1.04°F). But again, the second lack of cooling was “doctored” to hide that the CO2 and the other greenhouse gases are NOT the cause of climate change.
In this way, global warming, which was interpreted by climatologists to be caused by human activities, is in fact generated by a lack of global cooling during these two cycles.
In the section “Sexagesimal hypothesis predicts a 2000-2030 temperature plateau,” Alexandrescu wrote:
“Now, there is no way to know which of these warming bursts will repeat in the upcoming years, or if a different warming burst will occur. But, we don’t have to wait until 2030 to see how this cooling phase will end.
According to the sexagesimal hypothesis, 2012 and 2013 are the years with the lowest temperature before the beginning of the next warming burst. Furthermore, since 2017 is supposed to be the peak year of warming burst W1 (if W1 occurs), by 2020 we will know if the temperature has started to decrease. If it does, then 2030 may end 0.26°C (0.47°F) below 2000.” [Emphasis added]
Three Proofs of the 2013 Prediction
1. As we know, 2013 was the last year when “the world had cooled from 1998,” after which the temperature started to rise again. This confirms the first 2013 prediction.
2. The peak temperature in 2017 also confirms the second 2013 prediction.
3. The most likely prediction is a new temperature decrease by 2020. The important temperature declines in 2019 and 2020 are the proof that climate follows the trend #3.
As a result, we can predict that the 2030 average temperature will end at least 0.47°F (0.26°C) below the 2000 level.
Climate Model Key Points
This new version is a step-by-step presentation of the previous climate models with an updated terminology, but the core of the model remains the same.
Climate Change Correlates with Earthquakes
The new point we introduce in this version is that all climate models provided by climatologists have been proven wrong because Earth is a dynamic geosystem that is warming, shaking, leaking, swirling, and sliding, all at once.
Natural phenomena are interrelated, but they do not directly influence each other; they are all generated by the same primary phenomenon, the geosystem’s inner activity, their unique and unknown yet cause. If this sounds a bit mysterious, it’s because the Earth’s inner core may not be what we think it is now. Parts of these natural phenomena are studied by the Environmental Earth Science. This is good, but it’s just the first step, because other sciences, such as seismology and volcanology, have not been included yet. But they should, if we want to understand our globe’s activity.
Indeed, preliminary research points to the hypothesis that climate change correlates with earthquakes over the last 46 years. Yet, this is an ongoing research; a longer period might disprove it.
2020 Dual-Forcing Natural Climate Model Forecasts 2030 0.26°C (0.47°F) Below 2000 with 99% Accuracy
The explanation of the 2013 Sexagesimal Hypothesis is based on the temperature graph displayed on the CRU homepage when this post was published on March 10, 2013.
However, in 2020, Alexandrescu discovered a blog post written by Kenneth Richard in September 2016 that the cooling period 1940–1970 was “doctored” by climatologists to show more warming than in reality. In fact, the whole period was a continuous cooling, as displayed in the figure to the left.
As a result, the Warming Burst W2 in the cooling period 1940-1970 did not exist and probably it was just a second Warming Burst W1. If we corroborate Richard’s graph with the graph (below) found on Tony Heller’s website, it is also possible that the warming burst around 2017 was smaller than calculated. As we stand, climatologists hide from us the real temperature data, but if this is true, 2030 will end significantly lower than 0.26°C (0.47°F) below 2000.
For comparison with the previous graph, see the CRU homepage on September 16, 2020.
Read the post “Climate Change in a Red Pill” to find out the real story of anthropogenic global warming.
Note that if from now on, these warming bursts will continue to manifest in each cycle, the imbalance of 0.20°C (0.36°F) every 60 years between the warming and cooling phases would cause the Earth to get 10°C (18°F) warmer after 3,000 years.