Based on an unpublished natural theory, its author predicted in 2001 that climate change is natural, and has a 60-year cycle. The cooling phase/temperature plateau started in 2000, and should last until 2030. (See below the first diagram)
In 2013, a new version further predicted that the first part of the cooling phase ended in 2012/2013, and that 2017 will have a warming peak. After that, the climate could follow one of three possible trends until 2030 (See below the second diagram).
“However,” the author said, “we don’t have to wait until 2030 to see how this cooling phase ends. By 2020, we will know if the temperature has started to decrease. If it does, then 2030 may end 0.26°C (0.47°F) below 2000.”
Now, the fast and important temperature decline in 2019 is already the proof that climate follows the trend #3 and will have the above outcome. And 2020 will just be a confirmation of the 2019 trend.
Since all of these predictions until 2020 are proved correct by Mother Nature, this implies that this climate model is correct.
The 2001 predictions of Warmingearth.com
In July 2001, Warmingearth.com advanced a 60-year climate model and predicted the Earth has entered a 30-year period of temperature plateau since 2000, which will last until 2030. Read here for more details.
See in Figure 3 the red line between 2000 and 2030.
In the press release issued on July 23, 2001, Warmingearth.com made clear that:
“The 60-year cycle of Earth warming cannot be explained through the greenhouse effect. Its length indicates a cosmological cause. Now is the best time to see if this warming pattern is correct. If it is, we will be entering a cooling phase. However, if the greenhouse effect holds true, then Earth’s temperature will continue to rise,” the author said.
The Web site author further urged that the Kyoto Protocol be put on a five to ten year “hold” while the Earth’s temperature is monitored. [Emphasis added]
“If we do nothing and the greenhouse effect is true,” he said, “then it may produce in the next ten years a global average temperature rise of only 0.2-0.3 degrees F (0.1-0.15 degrees C) which is not really significant. But, if it is not true, we will save needless expense.” [Emphasis added]
The proofs of the 2001 predictions
The suggestion to put the Kyoto Protocol on hold proved to be correct, because both five-year and ten-year predictions were validated by Phil Jones, the CRU director until 2016:
1. By 2005, climatologists will notice that the Earth stopped warming.
One of the documents published by the 2009 Climategate was the private email Phil Jones sent on July 5, 2005:
“The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant.”
So in 2005, the top CRU climatologist did notice that “the world had cooled,” as we predicted, but decided to hide this information from the public.
2. By 2010, climatologists will reconfirm the warming hiatus.
During a BBC News interview in February 2010, Jones also declared:
“I’m a scientist trying to measure temperature. If I registered that the climate has been cooling, I’d say so. But it hasn’t until recently – and then barely at all. The trend is a warming trend.”
However, when we corroborate these two declarations, the conclusion is that Jones knew all the time that the temperature was declining since 1998, but in the 2010 interview, he tried to mitigate its length and importance. (Perhaps he thought that nobody would find out about this 2005 private email when he said: “But it hasn’t until recently…”)
In this way, both 2001 predictions are proved correct.
The 2013 predictions
In the section “Sexagesimal hypothesis predicts a 2000-2030 temperature plateau,” we wrote:
“Now, there is no way to know which of these warming bursts will repeat in the upcoming years, or if a different warming burst will occur. But, we don’t have to wait until 2030 to see how this cooling phase will end.
According to the sexagesimal hypothesis, 2012 and 2013 are the years with the lowest temperature before the beginning of the next warming burst. Furthermore, since 2017 is supposed to be the peak year of burst B0 (if B0 occurs), by 2020 we will know if the temperature has started to decrease. If it does, then 2030 may end 0.26°C (0.47°F) below 2000.” [Emphasis added]
Read the other predictions in the original post.
Three proofs of the 2013 prediction
1. As we know, 2013 was the last year when “the world had cooled from 1998,” after which the temperature started to rise again. This confirms the first 2013 prediction.
2. The peak temperature in 2017 also confirms the second 2013 prediction.
3. In our prediction, we estimated that we may notice a new temperature decrease by 2020, which is one of the possible outcomes. However, the fast and important temperature decline in 2019 is already the proof that the climate follows the trend #3, and this even one year ahead of our prediction. This also confirms the third 2013 prediction, and 2020 will just be a confirmation.
As a result, we can predict that the 2030 average temperature will end at least 0.47°F (0.26°C) below the 2000 level.
The high accuracy of all of these five predictions of the Natural Dual-Forcing Climate Model also proves that climate change is real, natural, and definitely NOT anthropogenic.
On the CRU temperature statistics since 2000
There is a discrepancy between Phil Jones’ declarations and the right part of the graph published on the CRU homepage. As we know, he acknowledged twice that the climate had cooled during the 1998-2010 period. Yet, the CRU graph shows a continuous warming instead of the warming pause that was supposed to be displayed.
So something is not right. Note that we report this disparity, but it is not our task to explain it. We just didn’t use these statistics for our predictions, and used instead our calculated model.
The temperature graph below displayed on the CRU homepage, shows that the temperature decline occurred in both previous 60-year cycles starting in 1880 and 1940, so according to our climate model, it also should be present in 2000-2012. But it is hidden in these temperature statistics.